Kyrgyzstan to join Russia — not!

Jump to Comments

Kyrgyz opposition members from the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan were collecting signatures yesterday for a referendum on Kyrgyzstan’s proposed confederation with Russia. Former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov has proposed inviting Russia to establish a single economic zone, currency, budget and even a joint-Parliament with Kyrgyzstan. If the United Front gathers the 300 thousand signatures required for Parliament to consider the issue, Ivan Makushok, Secretary of the (proposed) Union of Russia and Belarus would be all too happy to accept Kyrgyzstan, reports Neweurasia.

Definitely yes! Quite simply : Bishkek must simply apply for membership in the Union as a third party; the application will be reviewed, and certainly, we will accept Kyrgyzstan.

Critics left and right are denouncing the idea as populism borne of political bankruptcy, calling Kulov a “political prostitute” and the “true ‘provocateur.’” Edil Baisalov of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society compares the proposal to ‘marrying cats and hippopotamuses.’ Props for creativity there. One anonymous commentator on AKIpress spells out Kulov’s apparent strategy:

Unable to swing Bishkek’s vote [during the April protests] as he had hoped, to unite his ‘Front,’ Kulov is now calling for a confederation with Russia to join the supposedly divided North and south of Kyrgyzstan. Question: Is this what Russia wants? What is a Tartarstan or a Bashkortostan worth? Would Russia grant Kyrgyzstan equality and autonomy? Never.

While encouraging further cooperation within regional groupings, Muratbek Imanaliyev from the Institute for Public Policy similarly denounces the idea as ‘absolute nonsense’ and a ‘one in a thousand’ chance of actually happening, given the minimal gain for Russia.
Some commentators featured on the Bishkek Press Club site (seemingly all ethnically Russian) however are not so quick to shoot down the idea. Bishkek-based political scientist Alexander Knayzev grants Kyrgyzstan’s limited economic potential but entertains the possibility as “Russian interest in our republic is increasing.” According to Knayzev, getting rid of the US airbase would make raise Kyrgyzstan’s attractiveness since for now, “we are sitting on two stools.” Independent journalist Alexander Kulinsky points outthat Russia is unlikely to take on the proposal anytime soon given the coming Russian presidential elections and problems closer to home in Georgia, Estonia and Ukraine. He notes that the participation of Kazakhstan (or other post-Soviet states) in such a confederation would make the proposal much more likely. All said, this is unlikely to happen until a

“new generation of political elites arises, unlikely before 2015. Until then, the current elite that grabbed power during Soviet times, will be kicking and punching to resist such a move.”

Within Russia, I can’t imagine that populist expansionism would trump uglier forms of Russian nationalism in humoring the proposal. As Knayzev notes, “Very little of Russia’s position was taken into account in this issue.” Both in Russia and in the post-soviet world, I’ve heard a foggy nostalgia repeated, in which things would be better if things were just as they had been. Problems would somehow just magically disappear. But even if Russia were to recolonize Kyrgyzstan, what would be the gain? Greater strategic base rights and considerable control over regional water and potentially electricity.

All said, this is far from likely given the protests the issue would kick up, if taken seriously, within Russia and Kyrgyzstan. Kulov’s proposal reflects less on Russia’s influence on the region than the state of Kyrgyz politics, as an AKIpress reader comments:

Pity the Kyrgyz. Now in the seat [of power], Atambayev has changed his principles; Eshimkanov has sold himself for a life of calm; Baisalov has married and calmed down; while Kulov is dreaming and unable to find himself. Are there really no principled, long-sighted politicians serving the interests of the people [rather than] concerns for their own life, wallet or stomach?

Just as with the poisonings and coup-attempts that frequently crop up here in Bishkek, joining with Russia, at least this directly, is likely to be forgotten soon enough.

Photo by Teo Kaye, at the April 07 opposition protests.

3 Comments

Filed under Bishkek, csto, relations, russia