Putin’s surprise offer for Dubya at the G8 summit to jointly work on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan rather than the contentious Czech-based proposal has commentators buzzing. Even as Washington and Moscow have agreed to discuss such potential, many, such as the NYT and this blogger are listing “daunting, and possibly insurmountable, hurdles.”
James over at Neweurasia points to the proposal’s tremendous positive (but admittedly unlikely) potential for Central Asia.
American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).
Bishkek pundit Muratbek Imanaliyev is so giddy about the uncharacteristic proposal, he entertains direct cooperation if not unification between the Russian Kant base and the American Ganci base, 30 km apart from each other, just outside Bishkek. He floats possibilities for “single military infrastructural fields” tackling “group-strategy challenges [through] greater exchanges of information between the two bases.” Catching optimism:
“Kyrgyzstan must talk to our Russian friends, to the Americans, and try to find some kind of point for a closer friendship. Afghanistan is a global problem, equally important for all nations and not just Central Asia.”
Tensions around Russian opposition to the proposed missile defense shield in eastern Europe in the past weeks have visibly heightened media coverage of the small anti-US airbase protests here in Bishkek. Just yesterday, 20 protestors made a big show of burning home-made US flags outside the American University, during a visit from Richard Boucher, the US assistant Sec of State. It’s charming to imagine Bakiyev mending relations between the two powers here in Bishkek’s backyard.
Given what this post labels Russia’s ongoing “geopolitical counter-offensive” however, Putin’s track record suggests that this is just another political move. Ignoring technical issues, he’s bunting to stall the process, defuse the tensions he’s ratcheted up and/or buying time to change tacks before his next meeting with Bush in early July.
Advisers on both sides are probably scrambling to gage the next steps, which has Putin missing informal G8 meetings and Bush calling in sick, speculates Naryn Ayip and Tajik Boy. “You could see how nervous Bush was by how he was gripping that beer..”
On a more humorous note, Robert Amsterdam awards ‘Best Headline’ to Stratfor news service for this creative title:
Top photo : A Lockheed-Martin CGI model of a missile defense shield
Putin photo : AP, from Robert Amsterdam
3 Comments
June 9, 2007 at 9:40 am
[...] and Non Pon say that Vladimir Putin’s proposal for the US to put a missile defense system in Azerbaijan [...]
June 11, 2007 at 12:07 am
Some related stories :
A map detailing why Russia’s so keen on the Azerbaijan alternative
Putin gets pushy (“They have to hurry up with their decision, I’m not giving them much time.”)
Zbigniew Brzezinski on Russian-US relations (“How to avoid a new Cold War”)
June 12, 2007 at 2:29 am
Kyrgyzstan brokering a thaw between the US and Russia – I love it. I am envisioning a photo op with Bakiyev standing between Putin and Bush with a hand on each of their shoulders as they reluctantly shake hands in Bishkek.