From our newest contributor, Shannon Hiller:
The third annual Failed State Index, produced jointly by a The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, came out with mostly depressing news. The index ranks 177 states on 12 indicators, meant to asses their “vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration.” The 2007 report includes data gathered from May to December 2006. Compared to last year, Central Asia managed a mixed yet predictable showing. [Click here for the current table with all of the 12 indicators, here for last year's table and here for the non-truncated FP version listing all 60 failed states]

A primary conclusion for the region: the neighborhood matters a lot. From this principle, its easy to understand why Tajikistan made the worst progress, climbing three spots to #39. FP notes its proximity to Afghanistan with some handy arrows symbolizing the spreading heroin, AIDS, and discord. Reinforcing this assumption, Bosnia, Serbia, and Moldova seem to be moving rapidly to the bottom or entirely off the chart, reluctantly surrounded by an expanding European Union. There is some metaphor about gentrification to be had here, involving drugs, but I think it could drag on too long for comfort.

Though similar arrows are directed at Uzbekistan, one can only assume it escaped a similar rise, keeping last years ranking of #22, due to the much more high profile instability of Africa and the lack of a “repeat Andijan” to hold international attention. Still, it remains the least stable in the region and Karimov’s long tenure merited a comparison with such legendary dictators as Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe:

“But the problem is not restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov, who has continued a brutal crackdown on dissent since the massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters in May 2005, has been in power since 1991.”

Turkmenistan rose only two spots under the last year of Turkmanbashi’s reign, landing at #43. The suspicious death of RFE/RL reporter Ogulsapar Muradova, while in prison serving an equally suspicious sentence from a closed trial, is only the most high profile example of how deserving the country is of its near perfect (a.k.a. bad) score in the “Human Rights” column. Without Turkmenbashi, there still isn’t really a question of whether similar arrests will continue. This past year also saw the arrest of a prominent environmentalist. Though he was subsequently released, you’ve got to be scraping the bottom of the dissident barrel if you’re going after the greens.

Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, allegedly stepped the furthest from the abyss, dropping a full 13 spots to #41. Encouragingly, the drop was due to lower rankings nearly across the board, albeit extremely marginal. The ability of Kyrgyz to flee the country seems to be the main factor keeping it ranked above Turkmenistan. The survey’s time frame obviously missed the bulk of orchestrated protests between factions over the constitution, otherwise its difficult to square the low score on “Factional Elites” with recent events.

Other points of interest for the region include the disappearance of Russia and China from the list, signaling that at least part of the neighborhood may be improving a little. FP admits that this may be due to an increase in the number of countries analyzed, but also points to general economic growth. The lack of another Beslan-type incident in Russia likewise outweighed the decrease in democracy; the index measures susceptibility to state collapse, not really the more traditional measures of a government. Likewise, Kazakhstan doesn’t even register, probably as a result of its relative economic status, lack of such a highly volatile boarder, and maybe a hesitation to rub in the success of the Borat movie. The soap opera of Aliyev might help squeeze them into the chart next year though and the rest of Central Asia doesn’t appear to be leaving the top tiers any time soon.

Table source: Foreign Policy Magazine

Aynagul Saparbek kyzy, Chief Editor of the powerful opposition daily “Agym” gave a short interview on the Bishkek Press Club website on the new owner of the newspaper, which was recently sold by opposition Parliament member Melis Eshimkanov. Saparbek assured concerned readers that the new owner is a Kyrgyz citizen and not someone with any relations or favor towards Bakiyev’s network.

Agym was originally founded by Eshimkanov, originally a journalist. In response to the rumors that Agym (Kyrgyz translation for ‘Current’ or ‘Trend’) was to change its slant, Saparbek declared, “This is not so and never will be! Agym will live!” The paper will maintain its widespread circulation, its opposition slant and apparently, even one of the paper’s main editors – Eshimkanov’s brother. The only change is relocation to a new office. He also noted that Eshimakanov has no plans to start a new paper.

Along with Kyrgyz Ruhu, another opposition paper, printruns of Agym were forcibly confiscated by armed government forces on the night of the government crackdown on opposition protests on April 19. Last week, Eshimkanov announced in Parliament that he was going to sell the newspaper because he felt he was getting in the way of the newspaper. A slight change of Agym’s ownership with Eshimkanov’s apparent continuing involvement is hardly likely ease pressure on the opposition paper, or on journalist harrassment.

Meanwhile:
Eshimkanov is holding out on deciding whether or not to accept an offer to be the ambassador to Switzerland, but judging from the title of this Akipress report, he’s leaning towards joining taking Bakiyev’s offer. Just as these comments on Akipress(“Down with the traitor”), Kyrgyz blogger Azamat doubts his general credibility, given his dealings with Akayev in the past. If he does sell-out, IWPR’s recent reference to the Kyrgyz opposition’s ‘implosion’ may be more apt than it sounded at first.

Photo caption : Published two days before the government crackdown, Agym’s cover article depicted the Kyrgyz government as a seven headed dinosaur mowing down the Kyrgyz public. Prime Minister Atambayev is second head on the left, Bakiyev fourth on the left.

CXW over at neweurasia reports on signs of the potential crisis evolving out of Kyrgyzstan’s urban-rural, rich-poor and North-South divides, which have been politicized around the April standoff by both opposition and government media. Particularly with recent village clashes reported in the North and South pitting Kyrgyz against each other, analysts fear a further escalation as journalists, local and foreign, echo the idea. CXW comments:

Certainly, the cut-and-dry nature of a soley regional explanation is very appealing – just as ethnicity has often been used as an explanation for conflicts without looking at the underlying dynamics. Regional or ethnic differences may well play a role in facilitating conflict, particularly once it has begun, but often the ground for conflict has been prepared by local socio-economic factors such as high levels of unemployment and poverty and a shortage of resources.

Sheer regionalism obviously wasn’t enough to rally either side much in April. So it’s still slightly puzzling why the Bakiyev government cracked down so hard on the United Front protests if they were so obviously fizzling out on their own. Either it was because the government just knew they could get away with it (in the short term at least) or the snowballing reports of the imminent “next Tajik-styled civil war” had the opposition’s immediate potential far bigger than immediately visible.

French anthropologist Boris Petric explains why the North-South divide is particularly current now, in a valuable interview featured on the newsroom-blog of Camille Magnard and Mathilde Goanec. While the South had historically been tied to the Kokand khanate, the North allied itself in the late 19th century evade Chinese influence. When the borders were drawn up, the two parts were ‘artificially fused’ together, albeit with the North often getting more Soviet support. In the past few years, given the shift of power to Parliament deputies,

Being a governor or a ‘hakim’ doesn’t bring you as much power and resources as it once did… Why do they all want to be elected as deputies? To benefit from the parliamentary immunity, which is the ideal protection for their private economic activities. All these speeches about identity and tribalism are first meant to hide other realities such as the growing social inequalities in Kyrgyz society.

And he argues that it’s these inequalities, rather than political issues, that brought people out to overthrow Akayev and in the future, could be exploited by a number of other groups, such as Islamic fundamentalists.

IWPR analysts recommend having the government formulate policies to defuse this divide, while CXW points out that the government needs to concentrate on ‘tangible improvements in the living standards’ so people feel like they can ‘live, rather than just survive.’ Any of these changes seem unlikely to happen any time soon but even if less well-off Kyrgyzstan citizens can see past all the regionalism hype, what can they do to help themselves? The only immediate option visible to me is to vote for that deputy who’ll partially redistribute resources, while fighting for his share of limited resources/power in Parliament.

IWPR runs a report on the United Front’s recently opened “School of Democracy.” Located in a Bishkek suburb, classes are taught on ‘human rights, the structure of the state, and legislation,’ with a reported 41 graduates already. Teachers include Felix Kulov himself, who’s been known to style himself in the past as the “Kyrgyz Mahatma Gandhi.”

Edil Baisalov, no fan of Kulov’s, comments approvingly:

“The opposition should not see the people who took part in its demonstrations as ‘extras’ who turn up whenever they’re called. It needs to work for the long term and develop and educate its supporters,” he said

Bishkek’s Ala-Too square has been cleared of almost all traces of the opposition tent city after clashes with riot police. Depending on whose reports you read, the violence was instigated by government thugs lobbing rocks or the opposition protestors. At the square however, shopkeepers I talked to claim their windows were smashed by riot police, with reports of 1,000 strong gangs of provocateurs bussed in from the south.

It remains to be seen how western media will decry this as a blow to regional democracy initiatives and if the opposition will be cowed into submission. A number of protestors wandering around the square with mattresses insisted that a regrouping tomorrow would happen, while also suggesting that they might not live to see tommorow. Well past midnight, Parliament is currently holding an emergency session.

Even with plenty of local reports depicting recent protests being a “grab for power” aided by thousands of paid supporters, such an abrupt ending casts a dim outlook for the upcoming months, as Daniel Sershen reports on Eurasianet.

Whatever the cause of the confrontation, the results are clear: the opposition has lost any leverage that it had against Bakiyev in the constitutional debate. Some observers now say the president has no incentive to enter into deal with his critics that would alter the existing balance of power. If anything, observers now expect Bakiyev to press a political offensive that aims to restore presidential authority to the level that existed before the first round of constitutional protests last November.

Protests turned violent on the 4th day as provocateurs circulated among crowds to incite over-reactions & discredit opposition at a rally outside the National TV and Radio Broadcasting Corporation office, where protestors were demanding unbiased media coverage of the rally. One of the instigators was beaten unconscious and a journalist from the nation’s leading news-site, 24.kg, had his skull fractured by unknown assailants. The logic of immersing oneself amidst immediate enemies can only make sense if you are keen to make a point – or a scene. Or as one of the men paraded on stage in Ala-too square seemingly confessed, you’re paid 25 bucks (1000 som) by the government to kick up an unsightly fuss. Meanwhile, a 24.kg journalist was beaten by unknown assailants.

Opposition leaders are milking support from these ‘planted’ incidents with rather extreme allegations. One opposition MP, Temir Sariyev, claims that hired thugs are poised to loot stores, acts which will be blamed on the protestors.

With Kulov & co slightly discredited with a low turnout since the first day and newly installed moderate PM Atambayev already working on reforms, the opposition is seemingly “left with no alternative exit strategies” and few clear aims, as this panel of Soros/OSCE-funded Bishkek Inst. for Public Policy analysts suggest.

The opposition has failed so far to achieve its declared goals while strongly damaging the opposition movement in general. There is a danger that the executive power, which has so far failed to become an effective institution, may decide that it can do anything with such a weak opposition.

For the opposition, a few incidents to distract and rally the people could be exactly what’s needed. And it’s not a huge leap to posit that the opposition might plant such diversions themselves.

The danger is that, with both factions contemplating strategic violence as a tactic, the situation could easily spin out of control. The swaggering theatrics of protest are a heady intoxicant for underemployed teens, goaded by banners such as this one (photo, below), which uses the logo of a naked blade to break down the kyrgyz word “kanjar” (sword) into its component syllables, “kan” (blood) and “jar” (abyss). Feliks Kulov’s ‘United Front’ name-choice is also strongly suggestive of a battle-alliance – at some level surely intentional. It’s hardly suprising then that teenagers are running around with bandanas over their faces like guerillas. Tonight, the fifth day, the protestors were put to sleep with a screening of ‘300 Spartans,’ a historical war film depicting a band of spartans defeating a massive Iranian army.

Paranoia is mounting in the opposition camp over further provocations, with reports of certain hunger-strikers allegedly spying for Bakiyev’s brother and yurt residents being reshuffled. In further news that’s sure to be used in the ongoing info war, one of the few remaining hunger-strikers died today.

In today’s opposition protests in Bishkek, the new moderate prime minister Almaz Atambayev came out to address the crowds but was booed off stage before he could finish. When he was first appointed just two weeks ago, I thought someone like Atambayev, while definitely a last minute swap on Bakiyev’s part, could promote some reasoned dialogue. The hatred people were expressing today was pretty suprising however. [And not necessarily logical either. The photo above says ‘bridge’ in Kyrgyz – suggesting he’s either temporary or an intermediary] There’s some good analysis of Atambayev’s position in Vecherniy Bishkek – is he a Trojan horse, a turncoat or a simply presidential wannabe?

The constitutional amendments submitted today by a committee led by Atambayev are only to be considered by Parliament next Monday,the 16th. With bad weather forecasted, it’s possible that demonstrators may get restless well before then.

The numbers of protesters reported range from MP Eshimkanov’s laughable 50,000 to the government’s 3,500, with most sources citing 6-10 thou. IWPR has a good piece on the information war that I had mentioned in a post. Still with more than 30 yurts already with the parts for many more and over 60 army-issue tents already set up, it’s clear that more people are expected over the next few days.

Finally, I’ve noticed more of these signs around town of late. Apparently, Bakiyev is commonly referred to as ‘Baks,’ which sounds like the informal term for the US dollar. [‘Ket’ is the Turkic root for leave or just the imperative ‘get out.’] The slogan has a pretty catch sound to it and the symbol holds a whiff of corruption and I think, anti-Americanism — and by extension, all foreign influence. After all, this is from the same opposition that was so vehemently anti-HIPC just recently.

Protests have started on Bishkek’s Ala Too square with 21yurts already set up and plenty of material for more. Just by yurt count, these protests will be clearly bigger than last November. Kyrgyz President Bakiyev has promised to take strict measures to maintain order if necessary. A small protest has started outside the White House. Stay tuned for changes.
For readers outside of Bishkek, you can try following this overloaded webcam pointed at Alatoo square. Or this one.

United-Front opposition protests kicked off today throughout northern Kyrgyzstan – reportedly ranging from hundreds to thousands of demonstrators in four main district centers. Just as with the alleged 100 hunger strikers parked outside Parliament, numbers seem largely inflated with Russian press taking the lead. (Over 3 visits, the most I’ve seen just standing around is 60 people.) Opposition protests in southern Kyrgyzstan [Bakiyev’s turf] both on the 9th and the 11th were called off late last week to avoid conflict, after a United Front office was attacked three times.

Bishkek police are reportedly beefing up their numbers. Almaz Atambayev, the new Kyrgyz prime minister has categorically forbidden law enforcement agencies from using firearms to enforce order during public rallies, while 24.kg reports Bishkek police buying 1000s of rubber bullets from a private shop. I can only wonder what other last minute purchases they’re making.

Meanwhile, the opposition reiterated its demands for “early presidential elections and reform of the Constitution without Bakiyev’s participation,” as Atambayev is set to forward a newly completed draft of the constitution to Bakiyev on April 10. The United Front has dropped promises from an earlier 200,000 protestors set to show on Wednesday to a “sure 50,000,” while most news-sites echo Kulov’s cocksure prediction : “power will be peacefully transferred on April 11.”

Of late, some of the more fanciful news pieces surrounding the Bakiyev-Kulov/South-North struggle you come across imply a growing “information war,” as one Bishkek local labeled it for me. From suggesting Hizb-ut-Tahrir may strike during the protests, to an ‘annoyed’ Russia set to drop in and ‘suggest an alternative,’ a few journalists are apparently either out to grind their own axes or someone else’s.

News consumption probably differs a fair bit inside vs. outside Bishkek, but it’s disturbing either way what some choose to buy into. Just last week, many Bishkek locals were eager to believe that America was going to attack Iran last Saturday under “Operation Bite” – seemingly a Russian media invention.

Earlier arguments devaluing Kulov’s potential seem less valid now, with both the moderate (For Reforms) and radical (United Front) wings of the opposition now joined for the April 11 protests. But to what degree their cooperation holds remains to be seen – whether the support is ideological, financial or just in spirit is seemingly not reported. During protests last November, cynical columnists and cartoonists pointed to the networks of funding on both pro and anti camps, that supported bands of otherwise disinterested and unengaged protestors – a phenomenon that is sure to be just as widespread, provided the United Front has the funding.

As Kulov surely remembers, Bakiyev bends for reforms only under extreme circumstances – such as city squares indefinitely filled with protestors. Without funding from the likes of “For Reforms” financiers like Omurbek Babanov, it’s unclear if Kulov can himself ensure protests can really be ‘indefite.’ While resigning under pressure is probably not something Bakiyev is going to allow, a repeat scenario of hasty constitutional reforms is more likely. The question of course is how far Bakiyev and Kulov will hold out for an agreeable compromise and accordingly, how controlled the amassed protestors will be. From the Institute of Public Policy, in a post well worth reading, political analyst Batyr Isakov shares this:

If to consider how high has been the level of aggressiveness of political statements of opposition leaders and responding statements and actions of Bakiev’s supporters, and how consistently, though not very openly, the issue of regionalism has been used as a slogan by both sides, the probability of unpredictable events remains very high.

The latest cartoon from Tom Wellings of The Times of Central Asia. Only this time, it was too incendiary for them to run it.

60-100 protesters, including one Parliament member, started an indefinite hunger strike in yurts set up outside the Kyrgyz Parliament today. United Front leader Felix Kulov, freshly returned from Moscow, announced the government has until tommorow to sign a constitutional draft, or else…

As April 11 gets closer, the atmosphere here in Bishkek is just getting giddier. Mini-protests are cropping up all over, such as a 20 strong “Mothers for Peace” march down Sovietskaya around lunchtime today, and further anti-anti-gov rallies promised. Rumors are flying as well, such as on what Kulov was doing recently in Moscow, and an alleged assasination attempt on him a few days ago (heard word-of-mouth). It’s anybody’s guess what’s going to happen at this point, but it’s bound to be interesting.