From our newest contributor, Shannon Hiller:
The third annual Failed State Index, produced jointly by a The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, came out with mostly depressing news. The index ranks 177 states on 12 indicators, meant to asses their “vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration.” The 2007 report includes data gathered from May to December 2006. Compared to last year, Central Asia managed a mixed yet predictable showing. [Click here for the current table with all of the 12 indicators, here for last year's table and here for the non-truncated FP version listing all 60 failed states]

A primary conclusion for the region: the neighborhood matters a lot. From this principle, its easy to understand why Tajikistan made the worst progress, climbing three spots to #39. FP notes its proximity to Afghanistan with some handy arrows symbolizing the spreading heroin, AIDS, and discord. Reinforcing this assumption, Bosnia, Serbia, and Moldova seem to be moving rapidly to the bottom or entirely off the chart, reluctantly surrounded by an expanding European Union. There is some metaphor about gentrification to be had here, involving drugs, but I think it could drag on too long for comfort.

Though similar arrows are directed at Uzbekistan, one can only assume it escaped a similar rise, keeping last years ranking of #22, due to the much more high profile instability of Africa and the lack of a “repeat Andijan” to hold international attention. Still, it remains the least stable in the region and Karimov’s long tenure merited a comparison with such legendary dictators as Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe:

“But the problem is not restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov, who has continued a brutal crackdown on dissent since the massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters in May 2005, has been in power since 1991.”

Turkmenistan rose only two spots under the last year of Turkmanbashi’s reign, landing at #43. The suspicious death of RFE/RL reporter Ogulsapar Muradova, while in prison serving an equally suspicious sentence from a closed trial, is only the most high profile example of how deserving the country is of its near perfect (a.k.a. bad) score in the “Human Rights” column. Without Turkmenbashi, there still isn’t really a question of whether similar arrests will continue. This past year also saw the arrest of a prominent environmentalist. Though he was subsequently released, you’ve got to be scraping the bottom of the dissident barrel if you’re going after the greens.

Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, allegedly stepped the furthest from the abyss, dropping a full 13 spots to #41. Encouragingly, the drop was due to lower rankings nearly across the board, albeit extremely marginal. The ability of Kyrgyz to flee the country seems to be the main factor keeping it ranked above Turkmenistan. The survey’s time frame obviously missed the bulk of orchestrated protests between factions over the constitution, otherwise its difficult to square the low score on “Factional Elites” with recent events.

Other points of interest for the region include the disappearance of Russia and China from the list, signaling that at least part of the neighborhood may be improving a little. FP admits that this may be due to an increase in the number of countries analyzed, but also points to general economic growth. The lack of another Beslan-type incident in Russia likewise outweighed the decrease in democracy; the index measures susceptibility to state collapse, not really the more traditional measures of a government. Likewise, Kazakhstan doesn’t even register, probably as a result of its relative economic status, lack of such a highly volatile boarder, and maybe a hesitation to rub in the success of the Borat movie. The soap opera of Aliyev might help squeeze them into the chart next year though and the rest of Central Asia doesn’t appear to be leaving the top tiers any time soon.

Table source: Foreign Policy Magazine

With the Interpol searching the world for Rakhat Aliyev, the Kazakh Presidential son-in-law, on (politically-motivated) charges of kidnapping, political commentators are quick to draw parallels to governmental nepotism in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. (If you need some backgrounder, scroll down for links.)

Andrey Chebotarev from the Kazakh “Alternative” think-tank claims:

“We’re currently seeing a wave in authoritarianism; unlike in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan has a voluntary struggle against nepotism that without [pressure from] the opposition, would hardly be possible.”

Chebotarev points out how after “Matryoshka-gate,” Zhanysha Bakiyev was removed from office following heavy opposition criticism. Political scientist Eduard Poletayev takes this a step further, with the notion that Kyrgyz are generally less tolerant than Kazakhs. He teases out some differences in society that I believe are a by-product of relative societal stability and opportunity and resultant frustration.

Given this [relative intolerance], the fight against nepotism is more public and open; unlike in Kazakhstan, the process involves many more people like journalists, human rights activists and other members of civil society. In Kazakhstan, unfortunately, this fight is happening without the participation of the wider population, because the politicization of Kazakh elite is much lower and societal tolerance towards inter-elite infighting is much higher.

He cites the total lack of discussion or protest after Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional amendments, (which included allowing President Nazarbayev indefinite terms in office) save the protest and immediate arrest of one journalist, Sergei Duvanov.

In what’s definitely one of the more complicated stories recently, there’s good background on the Aliyev’s backstory here and here.

Chebotarev claims that Aliyev is likely to seek refuge with Lebanese relatives (related through his mother’s sister, apparently), but the interview fails to mention where they are. According to this report from the Financial Times, Aliyev has already declared through his spokesperson he’s not going to return to Kazakhstan to battle what he’s called a rising “totalitarianism.”

“Mr Aliyev wants to stay in Vienna and has not ruled out the possibility of asking the Austrian government for political asylum. Mr Aliyev understands it makes no sense to fight the mighty Kazakh regime. His priority now is to ensure the safety of his children and to stay in Vienna”.

In the midst of all of this, you’ve got to feel sorry for Dariga Nazarbayeva, the President’s daughter and Aliyev’s wife, herself a Parliament member and rumoredly a Presidential candidate. It’s been raised before on Registan, I think, but there’s a good soap opera in this whole saga. You’d probably have to cut out some of the extreme violence and profanity to appeal to broader sensibilities though.

Further developments :

Kazakh Leader’s Son-In-Law Freed On Bail In Austria