The Big Hillbilly Bluegrass Band will play at Bishkek’s main ex-pat bar on Tuesday. Their regular gig is at Madam’s Organ in D.C., which besides being know as one of the best bars in town was also Euan Blair’s favorite hang out while an intern in Congress. Clearly this means the Big Hillbilly’s have some connections in high places, besides their official ones as State Department-sponsored cultural ambassadors.

But seriously, having personally railed many times against assumptions that bluegrass is the same as generic “country,” I can attest that the genre comes from a culture born in the American mountains. Could mountains be the best way to connect with the Kyrgyz? Bluegrass has worked for politicians before, as in Virginia’s 2001 gubernatorial race were Yankee telecom millionaire Mark Warner won with the rural vote. His campaign song was sung by the Bluegrass Brothers and included lines like: “Mark Warner’s a good ol’ boy from up in Novaville. He understands our people, the folks up in the hills.” It went on to detail how folks should shout his merits from the coal mines to the stills of Southwest Virginia. Is it possible that with a little word play, a Kyrgyz version could induce similar goodwill from Kumtor to the kymyz chanach?

Image: http://www.boxcarforeverbluegrass.com/free.htm

From our newest contributor, Shannon Hiller:
The third annual Failed State Index, produced jointly by a The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, came out with mostly depressing news. The index ranks 177 states on 12 indicators, meant to asses their “vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration.” The 2007 report includes data gathered from May to December 2006. Compared to last year, Central Asia managed a mixed yet predictable showing. [Click here for the current table with all of the 12 indicators, here for last year's table and here for the non-truncated FP version listing all 60 failed states]

A primary conclusion for the region: the neighborhood matters a lot. From this principle, its easy to understand why Tajikistan made the worst progress, climbing three spots to #39. FP notes its proximity to Afghanistan with some handy arrows symbolizing the spreading heroin, AIDS, and discord. Reinforcing this assumption, Bosnia, Serbia, and Moldova seem to be moving rapidly to the bottom or entirely off the chart, reluctantly surrounded by an expanding European Union. There is some metaphor about gentrification to be had here, involving drugs, but I think it could drag on too long for comfort.

Though similar arrows are directed at Uzbekistan, one can only assume it escaped a similar rise, keeping last years ranking of #22, due to the much more high profile instability of Africa and the lack of a “repeat Andijan” to hold international attention. Still, it remains the least stable in the region and Karimov’s long tenure merited a comparison with such legendary dictators as Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe:

“But the problem is not restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov, who has continued a brutal crackdown on dissent since the massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters in May 2005, has been in power since 1991.”

Turkmenistan rose only two spots under the last year of Turkmanbashi’s reign, landing at #43. The suspicious death of RFE/RL reporter Ogulsapar Muradova, while in prison serving an equally suspicious sentence from a closed trial, is only the most high profile example of how deserving the country is of its near perfect (a.k.a. bad) score in the “Human Rights” column. Without Turkmenbashi, there still isn’t really a question of whether similar arrests will continue. This past year also saw the arrest of a prominent environmentalist. Though he was subsequently released, you’ve got to be scraping the bottom of the dissident barrel if you’re going after the greens.

Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, allegedly stepped the furthest from the abyss, dropping a full 13 spots to #41. Encouragingly, the drop was due to lower rankings nearly across the board, albeit extremely marginal. The ability of Kyrgyz to flee the country seems to be the main factor keeping it ranked above Turkmenistan. The survey’s time frame obviously missed the bulk of orchestrated protests between factions over the constitution, otherwise its difficult to square the low score on “Factional Elites” with recent events.

Other points of interest for the region include the disappearance of Russia and China from the list, signaling that at least part of the neighborhood may be improving a little. FP admits that this may be due to an increase in the number of countries analyzed, but also points to general economic growth. The lack of another Beslan-type incident in Russia likewise outweighed the decrease in democracy; the index measures susceptibility to state collapse, not really the more traditional measures of a government. Likewise, Kazakhstan doesn’t even register, probably as a result of its relative economic status, lack of such a highly volatile boarder, and maybe a hesitation to rub in the success of the Borat movie. The soap opera of Aliyev might help squeeze them into the chart next year though and the rest of Central Asia doesn’t appear to be leaving the top tiers any time soon.

Table source: Foreign Policy Magazine

Without question the world’s finest alcoholic dairy product, kymyz is a toothsome brew of fermented mare’s milk, and the intrepid inebriate who finds himself in these far reaches would be a fool not to embark on a kymyz-tasting tour.

A colorful, practical guide to drinking Kymyz in Kyrgyzstan. (Don’t be alarmed by its source : The Modern Drunkard) Full of suprising facts and sharp wit, Jake Fleming’s guide will surely brighten up your day and compel you to book the next flight for Bishkek, even if you’re a teetotalist. And if you’re not totally sold on “milk champagne” yet, picture yourself…

Feeling like a favored steppe-child, you’ll crest the horizon atop your steed, sitting skylit against the vermilion of the setting sun, thirsty after a long day’s ride. The woman of the yurt, an apple-cheeked descendent of perhaps Genghis Khan himself, sees you and rushes forward through the waving grass, a bowl of kymyz in her upraised hand. You sit upon your horse and drink deeply. You dismount, and the windblown, Fu Manchu-ed patriarch, legs bowed to perpendicular from years in the saddle, comes to join you for another cup. Even if your Russian is rusty and your Kyrgyz nonexistent, in this moment you understand each other perfectly. With a wipe of the lips and a sigh of contentment, you speak the universal language of alcohol appreciation fluently.

Posted yesterday at Jamestown, an intriguing response from US Embassy officials to three Eurasia Daily monitor articles about recent Kyrgyz opposition to the Ganci base in Bishkek. If you’re reading this site, chances are you’ve read the articles concerned (here, here and here) by Jamestown analysts John C.K. Daly, Erica Marat, and Roger McDermott. In reply to the accusations from US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Marie Yovanovitch of “significant factual inaccuracies, misleading statements, and false conclusions,” the three analysts post some impressive rejoinders, including:

As authors deal with materials available at the time of writing, it is most disingenuous for government officials to subsequently request revisions based on materials that were not available when writing, but rather, to acknowledge such an effort at post-publication revisionism compromises the Jamestown Foundation’s commitment to true scholarship on important contemporary issues.

I’m not going to try recap all the details but the exchange is well-worth reading for anyone with an interest in recent issues and details surrounding the airbase. One detail I found I had missed was that Zachary Hatfield, the US soldier involved in the airbase shooting, was convicted of deliberate homicide by the Kyrgyz Prosecutor-General and Ministry of Interior on May 7, 2007. Ambassador Yovanovitch apparently missed that too. Another thing I learnt is the word – aspersion : a sharp critical remark, designed to damage sb’s reputation.

Local media sources in Central Asia are often unsourced and contradictory to begin with, whether or not they’re influenced by external or internal interests. Given that, I’m regularly impressed at the fine balancing job (or crude, depending on how you view it ) that Eurasianet and EDM pull off in compiling sources. For anyone who’s charged that most English news writing in Central Asia is heavily (indirectly) influenced by the US State department, this would seem proof to the contrary.

I’m sure there are readers out there that have plenty of opinions to hash out on related issues. Get your aspersion on!

Martin Fluch, a German teacher based in Osh, has finished a marathon from Bishkek to Osh, covering some 680 miles and some rough mountain-passes (over 3500meters high) along the way. His goal was to raise awareness on Kyrgyzstan’s poor educational system and apparently help bridge the country’s North-south divide. An avid mountaineer, Fluch has also made similar awareness-runs in Ukraine for another school he taught at, writes Asel at Neweurasia. In terms of road conditions and altitude variation, anyone who’s driven the length of Kyrgyzstan’s main highway can recognize that this is not equivalent to a stretch of road in most other countries. Read more on Fluch’s run and Kyrgyzstan’s education system at Eurasianet and 24.kg.

“I am an alpinist and a long-distance runner, but my heart is a teacher,” Martin told EurasiaNet. “I am making this run to generate money to buy new blackboards for our school and German books for my students.”

“Secondary school #18 is, comparatively speaking, well off for a Kyrgyz school. But the school still lacks lots of basic equipment. “Our education system is outdated,” said Aijan Toktomamatova, a senior at the school. “We do not have [access to] the Internet, chemistry and physics equipment, visual aids. We do not have enough computers.”

Publicity initiatives, such as Fluch’s long-distance run, may end up having a larger impact on securing additional resources for Kyrgyz schools than recent government programs. “Our schools will not survive without international support,” said Abbas Israilov, a 14-year-old pupil. “If the government cannot help [students], and parents do not make enough money, who then will provide a helping hand?”

Photo by Eric Gourlan, with Eurasianet.

Putin’s surprise offer for Dubya at the G8 summit to jointly work on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan rather than the contentious Czech-based proposal has commentators buzzing. Even as Washington and Moscow have agreed to discuss such potential, many, such as the NYT and this blogger are listing “daunting, and possibly insurmountable, hurdles.”

James over at Neweurasia points to the proposal’s tremendous positive (but admittedly unlikely) potential for Central Asia.

American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).

Bishkek pundit Muratbek Imanaliyev is so giddy about the uncharacteristic proposal, he entertains direct cooperation if not unification between the Russian Kant base and the American Ganci base, 30 km apart from each other, just outside Bishkek. He floats possibilities for “single military infrastructural fields” tackling “group-strategy challenges [through] greater exchanges of information between the two bases.” Catching optimism:

“Kyrgyzstan must talk to our Russian friends, to the Americans, and try to find some kind of point for a closer friendship. Afghanistan is a global problem, equally important for all nations and not just Central Asia.”

Tensions around Russian opposition to the proposed missile defense shield in eastern Europe in the past weeks have visibly heightened media coverage of the small anti-US airbase protests here in Bishkek. Just yesterday, 20 protestors made a big show of burning home-made US flags outside the American University, during a visit from Richard Boucher, the US assistant Sec of State. It’s charming to imagine Bakiyev mending relations between the two powers here in Bishkek’s backyard.

Given what this post labels Russia’s ongoing “geopolitical counter-offensive” however, Putin’s track record suggests that this is just another political move. Ignoring technical issues, he’s bunting to stall the process, defuse the tensions he’s ratcheted up and/or buying time to change tacks before his next meeting with Bush in early July.

Advisers on both sides are probably scrambling to gage the next steps, which has Putin missing informal G8 meetings and Bush calling in sick, speculates Naryn Ayip and Tajik Boy. “You could see how nervous Bush was by how he was gripping that beer..”

On a more humorous note, Robert Amsterdam awards ‘Best Headline’ to Stratfor news service for this creative title:

“Putin Tells Bush Where to Put His Missile Defense System“

Top photo : A Lockheed-Martin CGI model of a missile defense shield
Putin photo : AP, from Robert Amsterdam

50 peaceful protestors rallied outside the US embassy in Bishkek for an hour today in the first public action from the “Movement for the Withdrawal of American military bases from Kyrgyzstan.” Spurred on by outspoken Parliament deputies, the movement is based on America’s poor (bureaucratic?) handling of the killing of a driver at the Ganci airbase, rumors of nuclear weapons bound for Iran hidden at the base and ecological damage caused by fuel dumping. Banners at the rally read: “Do not forget, do not forgive”; “No war on Iran”; “We want clean air”; and “Communists against the airbase.” With the further support of the Liberal-Progressive party, the movement has promised future protests at the Parliament and at the airbase itself, 30 kilometers outside of Bishkek.

Maria Ivanova, the widow of the driver who was shot, was front and center at the protest, denouncing America’s attitude towards relations with Kyrgyzstan as ‘impudent.’ Barring ‘anon’s denouncement of the protestors as “Moscow’s marionettes,” online commentary I’m reading is quite gung ho about the ‘Yankee Go Home’ movement. One Kyrgyz friend even told me, half in jest, that the average Kyrgyz associates three phrases with America – baks (bucks), George Washington & Yankee Go Home.

“Kyrgyzstan can cope with the threat of possible terrorist incursions without U.S. servicemen’s participation,” according to Alisher Sabirov, a member of parliament.

This type of statement is floated increasingly in local press, but no one really questions how American (or Russian/CSTO) jet fighters are likely to stop lone terrorists acting on their own, such as with the alleged terrorist bomb blast in Osh last week.

Vague as the anti-base movement demands are, GoogleNews shows AP/Reuters reports on today’s little protest plastered all over American newspapers. Hot on the heels of CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha’s recent visit, US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates is due in Bishkek on June 5. Theoretically, some settlement will be negotiated to quell resistance to the base.

Even if most of the anti-base claims are loose, it’s shameful that the US government has taken so long to offer widow Ivanova so little. It seems unlikely, but with enough nudging and incentive from Moscow – visible or not – the anti-base movement could really kick off in the wake of Gates’ visit. Non pawn?
Photo from Reuters.

With the Interpol searching the world for Rakhat Aliyev, the Kazakh Presidential son-in-law, on (politically-motivated) charges of kidnapping, political commentators are quick to draw parallels to governmental nepotism in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. (If you need some backgrounder, scroll down for links.)

Andrey Chebotarev from the Kazakh “Alternative” think-tank claims:

“We’re currently seeing a wave in authoritarianism; unlike in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan has a voluntary struggle against nepotism that without [pressure from] the opposition, would hardly be possible.”

Chebotarev points out how after “Matryoshka-gate,” Zhanysha Bakiyev was removed from office following heavy opposition criticism. Political scientist Eduard Poletayev takes this a step further, with the notion that Kyrgyz are generally less tolerant than Kazakhs. He teases out some differences in society that I believe are a by-product of relative societal stability and opportunity and resultant frustration.

Given this [relative intolerance], the fight against nepotism is more public and open; unlike in Kazakhstan, the process involves many more people like journalists, human rights activists and other members of civil society. In Kazakhstan, unfortunately, this fight is happening without the participation of the wider population, because the politicization of Kazakh elite is much lower and societal tolerance towards inter-elite infighting is much higher.

He cites the total lack of discussion or protest after Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional amendments, (which included allowing President Nazarbayev indefinite terms in office) save the protest and immediate arrest of one journalist, Sergei Duvanov.

In what’s definitely one of the more complicated stories recently, there’s good background on the Aliyev’s backstory here and here.

Chebotarev claims that Aliyev is likely to seek refuge with Lebanese relatives (related through his mother’s sister, apparently), but the interview fails to mention where they are. According to this report from the Financial Times, Aliyev has already declared through his spokesperson he’s not going to return to Kazakhstan to battle what he’s called a rising “totalitarianism.”

“Mr Aliyev wants to stay in Vienna and has not ruled out the possibility of asking the Austrian government for political asylum. Mr Aliyev understands it makes no sense to fight the mighty Kazakh regime. His priority now is to ensure the safety of his children and to stay in Vienna”.

In the midst of all of this, you’ve got to feel sorry for Dariga Nazarbayeva, the President’s daughter and Aliyev’s wife, herself a Parliament member and rumoredly a Presidential candidate. It’s been raised before on Registan, I think, but there’s a good soap opera in this whole saga. You’d probably have to cut out some of the extreme violence and profanity to appeal to broader sensibilities though.

Further developments :

Kazakh Leader’s Son-In-Law Freed On Bail In Austria

Getting through the past week’s news surrounding Bishkek’s American ‘Manas-Ganci’ airbase has been a journey through an echo-chamber of Russian-influenced rumor and sloppy contradiction. Plenty of paranoid logic (Bely parohod, Interfax, 24.kg repeating Russian newswires) and some sound reasoning (mostly on the Bishkek Press Club site, and reprints of the same commentators). What I’m interested in is how much of the latter is trickling through mainstream media and to what extent people might be really buying any of these charges. I’ve met my fair share of anti-American Kyrgyz (and as far as the Ivanov killing goes, I share the sentiment), but the bulk of Bishkek citizens I’ve talked to either don’t care or denounce the recent wave of interest in the Base as a bid for further rent-hikes. Mind you, my Russian’s only functional and my Kyrgyz non-existent, so I welcome input from anyone with sources or observations to add to the debate.

Yesterday, 24.kg relayed this vague report:

The U.S. Department of State says it is not aware of Kyrgyzstan’s anxiety regarding the presence of American military forces on the territory of the country, Interfax news agency reported referring to a department’s representative.

Even to the extent that this might be true (Doesn’t declaring ignorance of a fact suggest some acknowledgement?), the source’s anonymity reeks of a hollow charge. Last week, Alisher Mamasaliev from the Citizens’ Platform, a local NGO, stated in a press release:

“The start of the information campaign to form a negative image of the US airbase is a step from Moscow against the deployment of the [proposed] missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Moscow is now using all levers of influence on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.”

Denials here and here. Strangely, Russian news-service Kommersant owns up to the claim outright:

According to information obtained by Kommersant, the impetus for the initiative comes from Moscow. The Russian authorities hope that President Bakiyev will officially request that the US remove its base from Kyrgyz territory by as early as August, when the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is held in Bishkek.

Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev has already stated that the contract for the airbase was “very cunningly put together” and “practically impossible to annul.” But Bely Parohod and a newspaper article in ‘Megapolis’ (May 25) claim that the agreement can be cancelled in reference to the Vienna Convention of 1961, in which case Kyrgyz authorities can demand a 180 day withdrawal deadline for American troops. I’d love for anyone to shed further light on any of these claims.

In the Megapolis article, Kyrgyz Justice Minister Marat Kayipov states:

Since the USA is not a member-state of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Parliament recommending an appeal to the ICC is unlikely to provide any results, regardless of the fact that Kyrgyzstan is a member of the organisation.

This is particularly appaling coming from the Minister, since Kyrgyzstan is not an ICC member state and anyway, the court doesn’t take cases of accidental manslaughter.

Kommersant reports (naturally without sources) that both Russia and China are ready to commit funds to the organization of the SCO summit, if Bakiyev demands that Washington evacuate its base. One local newspaper editor I talked to cites Bakiyev’s son’s supply business to the base one reason immediate withdrawal is unlikely. (A clear ec of ex-President Akayev’s son-in-law, Adil Toigonbayev’s jet fuel supply business to the base, pre-Tulip Revolution.)

While the charges of Iran striking Kyrgyzstan in retaliation are a stretch at best, Miroslav Niyazov, ex-secretary to the Kyrgyz Security council, suggests that an actual withdrawal of the base would just leave the whole region worse off.

Certainly the presence of the airbase in Kyrgyzstan can’t but not annoy China and Russia but on the other hand, there is the possibility that the coalition forces can neutralize [Afghanistan’s] hotbed of terrorism and narco-traffic. Let us imagine for a moment that they left [the base]. The situation is not hard to imagine – everything back to square one.

Orozbek Moldaliyev, Director of Bishkek’s Research Center on Politics, Religion and Security, further posits that with the end of the US Ganci base, the Russian side may in turn lose interest in Kyrgyzstan, as well as the existing base in Kant which was created exclusively in opposition to America’s. In the case that China were also to lose interest in Kyrgyzstan, Moldomayiev expects a decline in the country’s economy and political capital.

Both journalists for Eurasianet, Erica Marat and Daniel Sershen suggest that recent interest on the base is based on a convergence of a few key events and political processes, and the issue picks up from where the 2005 SCO summit left off, when the US promised to consider dates for withdrawing bases from Central Asia. Sershen makes a key point in this interview :

The Russians are confident, and in principle I agree, that the Americans are losing this information struggle. If all the Kyrgyz had detailed information on what was being done at the base and why, I think, that people would support the base. In Kyrgyzstan, people well-informed about details of the base are extremely few and that’s America’s fault.

The last three quotes were not from mainstream media and all of them had less than 200 viewings (which you can track on the BPC site). With little reasoned analysis in mainstream papers, the issue is likely to be dragged through the summer, leading upto the August 16 SCO summit.

Aynagul Saparbek kyzy, Chief Editor of the powerful opposition daily “Agym” gave a short interview on the Bishkek Press Club website on the new owner of the newspaper, which was recently sold by opposition Parliament member Melis Eshimkanov. Saparbek assured concerned readers that the new owner is a Kyrgyz citizen and not someone with any relations or favor towards Bakiyev’s network.

Agym was originally founded by Eshimkanov, originally a journalist. In response to the rumors that Agym (Kyrgyz translation for ‘Current’ or ‘Trend’) was to change its slant, Saparbek declared, “This is not so and never will be! Agym will live!” The paper will maintain its widespread circulation, its opposition slant and apparently, even one of the paper’s main editors – Eshimkanov’s brother. The only change is relocation to a new office. He also noted that Eshimakanov has no plans to start a new paper.

Along with Kyrgyz Ruhu, another opposition paper, printruns of Agym were forcibly confiscated by armed government forces on the night of the government crackdown on opposition protests on April 19. Last week, Eshimkanov announced in Parliament that he was going to sell the newspaper because he felt he was getting in the way of the newspaper. A slight change of Agym’s ownership with Eshimkanov’s apparent continuing involvement is hardly likely ease pressure on the opposition paper, or on journalist harrassment.

Meanwhile:
Eshimkanov is holding out on deciding whether or not to accept an offer to be the ambassador to Switzerland, but judging from the title of this Akipress report, he’s leaning towards joining taking Bakiyev’s offer. Just as these comments on Akipress(“Down with the traitor”), Kyrgyz blogger Azamat doubts his general credibility, given his dealings with Akayev in the past. If he does sell-out, IWPR’s recent reference to the Kyrgyz opposition’s ‘implosion’ may be more apt than it sounded at first.

Photo caption : Published two days before the government crackdown, Agym’s cover article depicted the Kyrgyz government as a seven headed dinosaur mowing down the Kyrgyz public. Prime Minister Atambayev is second head on the left, Bakiyev fourth on the left.