The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has pointed out recently that radioactive tailings are still piled around Tajikistan. Ana María Cetto, IAEA Deputy Director General and head of its Technical Cooperation Department, visited Tajikistan this May. She met with Minister Asadullo Gulomov and Foreign Minister Hamrokhon Zaripov who apparently claimed that cleaning up radioactive debris in rural areas is a priority. The problem of course is the funding. Tajikistan has 10 abandoned tailings sites. And according to Ms. Cetto the IAEA can’t pay to clean them up rather can only “provide the expertise and the knowledge to Tajikistan that will assist it best help itself.” But still, good news after several years of little press and little priority?

Hardly. A IWPR report from 2005, two years ago for those keeping count, revealed similar visits from the IAEA and similar statements from the director of the Vostokredmet Mining Company: “Over the past few years specialists from the IAEA have come to Sogd region four times. Several evaluation projects were undertaken with the Russian nuclear ministry, but neither Russia nor Tajikistan have the necessary funds to go forward. At present, Vostokredmet can only monitor the situation. Around 10-15 million US dollars would be needed to make any progress.”

10 million USD doesn’t sound too bad. But that estimate may be a bit low to do the job properly. 9 sites in Western Colorado were recently cleaned up by the US Department of Energy for over $900 million, out of a program totaling $1.5 billion. Ongoing regulations and projects to prevent building on or near potentially radioactive land are also a far cry from the IAEA report that houses are actually being built out of tailings in Tajikistan, not just near them.

So if the UN agency and the US government won’t help, it’s possible that Europe might take notice (as they have in the past) or non-governmental like the Nuclear Threat Initiative can raise the private funds to clean up a potential threat to human health and regional security. But all indications seem to be that it could take quite a few more years.

Picture: Uranium mine tailings at Taboshar in Tajikistan. (P. Rickwood/IAEA)

Several news sources carried an AP story about Chevron’s new office in Ashgabat. The IHT, CNN Money, Turkish Weekly, and others all duly ran the meager geopolitical analysis provided to them by the AP, namely the recent death of Turkmenbashi and the importance of natural resources in the region. The story noted twice that the source was “state-run television,” as if imply that the information isn’t untrustworthy and yet wasn’t worth fact checking either. Sources from Germany managed even less information about the country and the implications of such an event. Meanwhile, Chevron has yet to post any press releases about the partnership.

TOL has already pointed out the lack of depth in such coverage and promises further analysis soon. As an addendum, this particular news bite seems characteristic of most widespread (at least English language) news coverage of Central Asia, which tends to come from a single source and make brief, broad generalizations about geopolitics. Even more typical, the story has quickly been supplanted by stories about the ridiculous resurgence of personality-cult-like behavior in Berdymukhamedov’s jewel bedecked gift to himself. But who would realistically expect the media to care more about Chevron or the Caspian pipeline than a 2 pound gold pendant?

Picture: AP Photo/ Alexander Vershinin (from Washington Post)

Richard Johnson, the graphics director at the National Post was recently embedded in the Canadian military for two months outside of Kandahar. He’s been posting remarkable sketches of Kandahar life with extended captions, including the one above and below this post. The material is published in the newspaper and blogged via the Post’s website. Postings from Afghanistan: a Kandahar Journal.

The Big Hillbilly Bluegrass Band will play at Bishkek’s main ex-pat bar on Tuesday. Their regular gig is at Madam’s Organ in D.C., which besides being know as one of the best bars in town was also Euan Blair’s favorite hang out while an intern in Congress. Clearly this means the Big Hillbilly’s have some connections in high places, besides their official ones as State Department-sponsored cultural ambassadors.

But seriously, having personally railed many times against assumptions that bluegrass is the same as generic “country,” I can attest that the genre comes from a culture born in the American mountains. Could mountains be the best way to connect with the Kyrgyz? Bluegrass has worked for politicians before, as in Virginia’s 2001 gubernatorial race were Yankee telecom millionaire Mark Warner won with the rural vote. His campaign song was sung by the Bluegrass Brothers and included lines like: “Mark Warner’s a good ol’ boy from up in Novaville. He understands our people, the folks up in the hills.” It went on to detail how folks should shout his merits from the coal mines to the stills of Southwest Virginia. Is it possible that with a little word play, a Kyrgyz version could induce similar goodwill from Kumtor to the kymyz chanach?

Image: http://www.boxcarforeverbluegrass.com/free.htm

Kazakhstan is South Carolina, Uzbekistan is Wyoming, Russia is New Jersey and Pakistan is Arkansas, according to this map.

Although the economies of countries like China and India are growing at an incredible rate, the US remains the nation with the highest GDP in the world – and by far: US GDP is projected to be $13,22 trillion (or $13.220 billion) in 2007, according to this source. That’s almost as much as the economies of the next four (Japan, Germany, China, UK) combined. The creator of this map has had the interesting idea to break down that gigantic US GDP into the GDPs of individual states, and compare those to other countries’ GDP. What follows, is this slightly misleading map – misleading, because the economies both of the US states and of the countries they are compared with are not weighted for their respective populations.

Click here for a list of countries by GDP.

From our newest contributor, Shannon Hiller:
The third annual Failed State Index, produced jointly by a The Fund for Peace and Foreign Policy magazine, came out with mostly depressing news. The index ranks 177 states on 12 indicators, meant to asses their “vulnerability to violent internal conflict and societal deterioration.” The 2007 report includes data gathered from May to December 2006. Compared to last year, Central Asia managed a mixed yet predictable showing. [Click here for the current table with all of the 12 indicators, here for last year's table and here for the non-truncated FP version listing all 60 failed states]

A primary conclusion for the region: the neighborhood matters a lot. From this principle, its easy to understand why Tajikistan made the worst progress, climbing three spots to #39. FP notes its proximity to Afghanistan with some handy arrows symbolizing the spreading heroin, AIDS, and discord. Reinforcing this assumption, Bosnia, Serbia, and Moldova seem to be moving rapidly to the bottom or entirely off the chart, reluctantly surrounded by an expanding European Union. There is some metaphor about gentrification to be had here, involving drugs, but I think it could drag on too long for comfort.

Though similar arrows are directed at Uzbekistan, one can only assume it escaped a similar rise, keeping last years ranking of #22, due to the much more high profile instability of Africa and the lack of a “repeat Andijan” to hold international attention. Still, it remains the least stable in the region and Karimov’s long tenure merited a comparison with such legendary dictators as Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe:

“But the problem is not restricted to sub-Saharan Africa. Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov, who has continued a brutal crackdown on dissent since the massacre of hundreds of unarmed protesters in May 2005, has been in power since 1991.”

Turkmenistan rose only two spots under the last year of Turkmanbashi’s reign, landing at #43. The suspicious death of RFE/RL reporter Ogulsapar Muradova, while in prison serving an equally suspicious sentence from a closed trial, is only the most high profile example of how deserving the country is of its near perfect (a.k.a. bad) score in the “Human Rights” column. Without Turkmenbashi, there still isn’t really a question of whether similar arrests will continue. This past year also saw the arrest of a prominent environmentalist. Though he was subsequently released, you’ve got to be scraping the bottom of the dissident barrel if you’re going after the greens.

Kyrgyzstan, on the other hand, allegedly stepped the furthest from the abyss, dropping a full 13 spots to #41. Encouragingly, the drop was due to lower rankings nearly across the board, albeit extremely marginal. The ability of Kyrgyz to flee the country seems to be the main factor keeping it ranked above Turkmenistan. The survey’s time frame obviously missed the bulk of orchestrated protests between factions over the constitution, otherwise its difficult to square the low score on “Factional Elites” with recent events.

Other points of interest for the region include the disappearance of Russia and China from the list, signaling that at least part of the neighborhood may be improving a little. FP admits that this may be due to an increase in the number of countries analyzed, but also points to general economic growth. The lack of another Beslan-type incident in Russia likewise outweighed the decrease in democracy; the index measures susceptibility to state collapse, not really the more traditional measures of a government. Likewise, Kazakhstan doesn’t even register, probably as a result of its relative economic status, lack of such a highly volatile boarder, and maybe a hesitation to rub in the success of the Borat movie. The soap opera of Aliyev might help squeeze them into the chart next year though and the rest of Central Asia doesn’t appear to be leaving the top tiers any time soon.

Table source: Foreign Policy Magazine

Without question the world’s finest alcoholic dairy product, kymyz is a toothsome brew of fermented mare’s milk, and the intrepid inebriate who finds himself in these far reaches would be a fool not to embark on a kymyz-tasting tour.

A colorful, practical guide to drinking Kymyz in Kyrgyzstan. (Don’t be alarmed by its source : The Modern Drunkard) Full of suprising facts and sharp wit, Jake Fleming’s guide will surely brighten up your day and compel you to book the next flight for Bishkek, even if you’re a teetotalist. And if you’re not totally sold on “milk champagne” yet, picture yourself…

Feeling like a favored steppe-child, you’ll crest the horizon atop your steed, sitting skylit against the vermilion of the setting sun, thirsty after a long day’s ride. The woman of the yurt, an apple-cheeked descendent of perhaps Genghis Khan himself, sees you and rushes forward through the waving grass, a bowl of kymyz in her upraised hand. You sit upon your horse and drink deeply. You dismount, and the windblown, Fu Manchu-ed patriarch, legs bowed to perpendicular from years in the saddle, comes to join you for another cup. Even if your Russian is rusty and your Kyrgyz nonexistent, in this moment you understand each other perfectly. With a wipe of the lips and a sigh of contentment, you speak the universal language of alcohol appreciation fluently.

Posted yesterday at Jamestown, an intriguing response from US Embassy officials to three Eurasia Daily monitor articles about recent Kyrgyz opposition to the Ganci base in Bishkek. If you’re reading this site, chances are you’ve read the articles concerned (here, here and here) by Jamestown analysts John C.K. Daly, Erica Marat, and Roger McDermott. In reply to the accusations from US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, Marie Yovanovitch of “significant factual inaccuracies, misleading statements, and false conclusions,” the three analysts post some impressive rejoinders, including:

As authors deal with materials available at the time of writing, it is most disingenuous for government officials to subsequently request revisions based on materials that were not available when writing, but rather, to acknowledge such an effort at post-publication revisionism compromises the Jamestown Foundation’s commitment to true scholarship on important contemporary issues.

I’m not going to try recap all the details but the exchange is well-worth reading for anyone with an interest in recent issues and details surrounding the airbase. One detail I found I had missed was that Zachary Hatfield, the US soldier involved in the airbase shooting, was convicted of deliberate homicide by the Kyrgyz Prosecutor-General and Ministry of Interior on May 7, 2007. Ambassador Yovanovitch apparently missed that too. Another thing I learnt is the word – aspersion : a sharp critical remark, designed to damage sb’s reputation.

Local media sources in Central Asia are often unsourced and contradictory to begin with, whether or not they’re influenced by external or internal interests. Given that, I’m regularly impressed at the fine balancing job (or crude, depending on how you view it ) that Eurasianet and EDM pull off in compiling sources. For anyone who’s charged that most English news writing in Central Asia is heavily (indirectly) influenced by the US State department, this would seem proof to the contrary.

I’m sure there are readers out there that have plenty of opinions to hash out on related issues. Get your aspersion on!

Martin Fluch, a German teacher based in Osh, has finished a marathon from Bishkek to Osh, covering some 680 miles and some rough mountain-passes (over 3500meters high) along the way. His goal was to raise awareness on Kyrgyzstan’s poor educational system and apparently help bridge the country’s North-south divide. An avid mountaineer, Fluch has also made similar awareness-runs in Ukraine for another school he taught at, writes Asel at Neweurasia. In terms of road conditions and altitude variation, anyone who’s driven the length of Kyrgyzstan’s main highway can recognize that this is not equivalent to a stretch of road in most other countries. Read more on Fluch’s run and Kyrgyzstan’s education system at Eurasianet and 24.kg.

“I am an alpinist and a long-distance runner, but my heart is a teacher,” Martin told EurasiaNet. “I am making this run to generate money to buy new blackboards for our school and German books for my students.”

“Secondary school #18 is, comparatively speaking, well off for a Kyrgyz school. But the school still lacks lots of basic equipment. “Our education system is outdated,” said Aijan Toktomamatova, a senior at the school. “We do not have [access to] the Internet, chemistry and physics equipment, visual aids. We do not have enough computers.”

Publicity initiatives, such as Fluch’s long-distance run, may end up having a larger impact on securing additional resources for Kyrgyz schools than recent government programs. “Our schools will not survive without international support,” said Abbas Israilov, a 14-year-old pupil. “If the government cannot help [students], and parents do not make enough money, who then will provide a helping hand?”

Photo by Eric Gourlan, with Eurasianet.

Putin’s surprise offer for Dubya at the G8 summit to jointly work on a missile defense shield in Azerbaijan rather than the contentious Czech-based proposal has commentators buzzing. Even as Washington and Moscow have agreed to discuss such potential, many, such as the NYT and this blogger are listing “daunting, and possibly insurmountable, hurdles.”

James over at Neweurasia points to the proposal’s tremendous positive (but admittedly unlikely) potential for Central Asia.

American and Russian objectives in Central Asia are not so dramatically opposed as popularly portrayed, and there is no fundamental reason the two countries could not cooperate in Central Asia. Both countries are committed to opposing militant Islam, both favor stability in the post-Soviet space, and both have a stake in the global economy. It seems that there are too many Cold War bureaucrats left over in the foreign affairs ministries of both sides. The Cold War is over, and there is no Great Game (or if there is, it is a childish one).

Bishkek pundit Muratbek Imanaliyev is so giddy about the uncharacteristic proposal, he entertains direct cooperation if not unification between the Russian Kant base and the American Ganci base, 30 km apart from each other, just outside Bishkek. He floats possibilities for “single military infrastructural fields” tackling “group-strategy challenges [through] greater exchanges of information between the two bases.” Catching optimism:

“Kyrgyzstan must talk to our Russian friends, to the Americans, and try to find some kind of point for a closer friendship. Afghanistan is a global problem, equally important for all nations and not just Central Asia.”

Tensions around Russian opposition to the proposed missile defense shield in eastern Europe in the past weeks have visibly heightened media coverage of the small anti-US airbase protests here in Bishkek. Just yesterday, 20 protestors made a big show of burning home-made US flags outside the American University, during a visit from Richard Boucher, the US assistant Sec of State. It’s charming to imagine Bakiyev mending relations between the two powers here in Bishkek’s backyard.

Given what this post labels Russia’s ongoing “geopolitical counter-offensive” however, Putin’s track record suggests that this is just another political move. Ignoring technical issues, he’s bunting to stall the process, defuse the tensions he’s ratcheted up and/or buying time to change tacks before his next meeting with Bush in early July.

Advisers on both sides are probably scrambling to gage the next steps, which has Putin missing informal G8 meetings and Bush calling in sick, speculates Naryn Ayip and Tajik Boy. “You could see how nervous Bush was by how he was gripping that beer..”

On a more humorous note, Robert Amsterdam awards ‘Best Headline’ to Stratfor news service for this creative title:

“Putin Tells Bush Where to Put His Missile Defense System“

Top photo : A Lockheed-Martin CGI model of a missile defense shield
Putin photo : AP, from Robert Amsterdam