Kyrgyzstan to join Russia — not!

Kyrgyz opposition members from the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan were collecting signatures yesterday for a referendum on Kyrgyzstan’s proposed confederation with Russia. Former Prime Minister Feliks Kulov has proposed inviting Russia to establish a single economic zone, currency, budget and even a joint-Parliament with Kyrgyzstan. If the United Front gathers the 300 thousand signatures required for Parliament to consider the issue, Ivan Makushok, Secretary of the (proposed) Union of Russia and Belarus would be all too happy to accept Kyrgyzstan, reports Neweurasia.

Definitely yes! Quite simply : Bishkek must simply apply for membership in the Union as a third party; the application will be reviewed, and certainly, we will accept Kyrgyzstan.

Critics left and right are denouncing the idea as populism borne of political bankruptcy, calling Kulov a “political prostitute” and the “true ‘provocateur.’” Edil Baisalov of the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society compares the proposal to ‘marrying cats and hippopotamuses.’ Props for creativity there. One anonymous commentator on AKIpress spells out Kulov’s apparent strategy:

Unable to swing Bishkek’s vote [during the April protests] as he had hoped, to unite his ‘Front,’ Kulov is now calling for a confederation with Russia to join the supposedly divided North and south of Kyrgyzstan. Question: Is this what Russia wants? What is a Tartarstan or a Bashkortostan worth? Would Russia grant Kyrgyzstan equality and autonomy? Never.

While encouraging further cooperation within regional groupings, Muratbek Imanaliyev from the Institute for Public Policy similarly denounces the idea as ‘absolute nonsense’ and a ‘one in a thousand’ chance of actually happening, given the minimal gain for Russia.
Some commentators featured on the Bishkek Press Club site (seemingly all ethnically Russian) however are not so quick to shoot down the idea.

Bishkek’s Ganci base | Yankee ketsin!

50 peaceful protestors rallied outside the US embassy in Bishkek for an hour today in the first public action from the “Movement for the Withdrawal of American military bases from Kyrgyzstan.” Spurred on by outspoken Parliament deputies, the movement is based on America’s poor (bureaucratic?) handling of the killing of a driver at the Ganci airbase, rumors of nuclear weapons bound for Iran hidden at the base and ecological damage caused by fuel dumping. Banners at the rally read: “Do not forget, do not forgive”; “No war on Iran”; “We want clean air”; and “Communists against the airbase.” With the further support of the Liberal-Progressive party, the movement has promised future protests at the Parliament and at the airbase itself, 30 kilometers outside of Bishkek.

Maria Ivanova, the widow of the driver who was shot, was front and center at the protest, denouncing America’s attitude towards relations with Kyrgyzstan as ‘impudent.’ Barring ‘anon’s denouncement of the protestors as “Moscow’s marionettes,” online commentary I’m reading is quite gung ho about the ‘Yankee Go Home’ movement. One Kyrgyz friend even told me, half in jest, that the average Kyrgyz associates three phrases with America – baks (bucks), George Washington & Yankee Go Home.

Rakhat Aliyev & Kyrgyz Nepotism

With the Interpol searching the world for Rakhat Aliyev, the Kazakh Presidential son-in-law, on (politically-motivated) charges of kidnapping, political commentators are quick to draw parallels to governmental nepotism in neighboring Kyrgyzstan. (If you need some backgrounder, scroll down for links.)

Andrey Chebotarev from the Kazakh “Alternative” think-tank claims:

“We’re currently seeing a wave in authoritarianism; unlike in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan has a voluntary struggle against nepotism that without [pressure from] the opposition, would hardly be possible.”

Chebotarev points out how after “Matryoshka-gate,” Zhanysha Bakiyev was removed from office following heavy opposition criticism. Political scientist Eduard Poletayev takes this a step further, with the notion that Kyrgyz are generally less tolerant than Kazakhs. He teases out some differences in society that I believe are a by-product of relative societal stability and opportunity and resultant frustration.

Given this [relative intolerance], the fight against nepotism is more public and open; unlike in Kazakhstan, the process involves many more people like journalists, human rights activists and other members of civil society. In Kazakhstan, unfortunately, this fight is happening without the participation of the wider population, because the politicization of Kazakh elite is much lower and societal tolerance towards inter-elite infighting is much higher.

He cites the total lack of discussion or protest after Kazakhstan’s recent constitutional amendments, (which included allowing President Nazarbayev indefinite terms in office) save the protest and immediate arrest of one journalist, Sergei Duvanov.

Ivanova on US double standards

Last week, I posted this quote by Maria Ivanova, the widow of Aleksandr Ivanov, a Kyrgyz citizen truck-driver who was shot and killed by a US soldier at a Ganci airbase checkpoint on December 6, 2006.

America shouts about their democratic rights which it imposes everywhere, but today we have seen that this has not been the case. In the US, for the moral damage of a spilled cup of coffee or quality goods, far higher payments are received than those of the moral damage that they have caused with such a vile act.

When I originally posted the quote, I thought that Ivanova’s relation between America’s promotion of democracy and a McDonald’s tort case was illogical and overly emotional.

Recently, a friend (who didn’t want his name posted here) unpacked it this way for me. To much of the world, McDonald’s represents America, along with the Lion King and Lindsey Lohan. As for the Kyrgyz that shun Ivanova’s outrage at the US’s offer of $55,000 in moral compensation as opportunistic greed, Ivanova’s point holds.

In America — relatively the land of opportunistic greed — a tort case over someone’s scalded knees can fetch 10 times more than your murdered husband. What’s more, there’s nothing you can do about it. American democracy for Americans, and democracy for the rest of the world. Go figure.

That’s not to say that this case is not being hijacked politically. Media from all over the spectrum, local and foreign, have their two cents to chip in. Timing and nationality are key however, as Erica Marat points out here. Kyrgyz blogger Naryn Ayip also points out the stark lack of prostest when the son of the Russian Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan shot a local Bishkek girl in a disco after she refused to dance with him.

Mediaspin | Ganci airbase news roundup

Getting through the past week’s news surrounding Bishkek’s American ‘Manas-Ganci’ airbase has been a journey through an echo-chamber of Russian-influenced rumor and sloppy contradiction. Plenty of paranoid logic (Bely parohod, Interfax, 24.kg repeating Russian newswires) and some sound reasoning (mostly on the Bishkek Press Club site, and reprints of the same commentators). What I’m interested in is how much of the latter is trickling through mainstream media and to what extent people might be really buying any of these charges. I’ve met my fair share of anti-American Kyrgyz (and as far as the Ivanov killing goes, I share the sentiment), but the bulk of Bishkek citizens I’ve talked to either don’t care or denounce the recent wave of interest in the Base as a bid for further rent-hikes. Mind you, my Russian’s only functional and my Kyrgyz non-existent, so I welcome input from anyone with sources or observations to add to the debate.

Yesterday, 24.kg relayed this vague report:

The U.S. Department of State says it is not aware of Kyrgyzstan’s anxiety regarding the presence of American military forces on the territory of the country, Interfax news agency reported referring to a department’s representative.

Even to the extent that this might be true (Doesn’t declaring ignorance of a fact suggest some acknowledgement?), the source’s anonymity reeks of a hollow charge. Last week, Alisher Mamasaliev from the Citizens’ Platform, a local NGO, stated in a press release:

“The start of the information campaign to form a negative image of the US airbase is a step from Moscow against the deployment of the [proposed] missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland. Moscow is now using all levers of influence on President Kurmanbek Bakiyev.”

Denials here and here. Strangely, Russian news-service Kommersant owns up to the claim outright:

According to information obtained by Kommersant, the impetus for the initiative comes from Moscow. The Russian authorities hope that President Bakiyev will officially request that the US remove its base from Kyrgyz territory by as early as August, when the next meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) is held in Bishkek.

Prime Minister Almazbek Atambayev has already stated that the contract for the airbase was “very cunningly put together” and “practically impossible to annul.” But Bely Parohod and a newspaper article in ‘Megapolis’ (May 25) claim that the agreement can be cancelled in reference to the Vienna Convention of 1961, in which case Kyrgyz authorities can demand a 180 day withdrawal deadline for American troops. I’d love for anyone to shed further light on any of these claims.

Agym’s new owner & Eshimkanov’s dealings

Aynagul Saparbek kyzy, Chief Editor of the powerful opposition daily “Agym” gave a short interview on the Bishkek Press Club website on the new owner of the newspaper, which was recently sold by opposition Parliament member Melis Eshimkanov. Saparbek assured concerned readers that the new owner is a Kyrgyz citizen and not someone with any relations or favor towards Bakiyev’s network.

Agym was originally founded by Eshimkanov, originally a journalist. In response to the rumors that Agym (Kyrgyz translation for ‘Current’ or ‘Trend’) was to change its slant, Saparbek declared, “This is not so and never will be! Agym will live!” The paper will maintain its widespread circulation, its opposition slant and apparently, even one of the paper’s main editors – Eshimkanov’s brother. The only change is relocation to a new office. He also noted that Eshimakanov has no plans to start a new paper.

Russia’s backyard

From Publius Pundit’s post calling for “Protest against Russia Babes” in light of Miss Universe 2007 and all the participating babes of Eastern Europe.

The Russian daily Noviye Izvestia recently published a map, shown above, that graded relations between Russia and countries on its borders. The newspaper concluded that Russia had provoked conflict with virtually all of its western neighbours and enjoyed good ties only with Armenia and former Soviet republics in Central Asia.

The legend in the top right lists, from the top:
- historical disagreements
- ‘artificial’ conflicts (literal transl.)
- friends
- neutral relations

Yankee Ketsin! | Bishkek’s Airbases

Both of Kyrgyzstan’s airbases got plenty of newsplay today, neatly coinciding with a visit today from the CSTO Secretary General Nikolai Bordyuzha. Most of the news agencies make much of the ‘working visit,’ which follows Kyrgyz Parliament Speaker Marat Sultanov’s mission to Moscow last week where he plead for more CSTO forces to help guard Kyrgyzstan’s borders.

“If the Kant base is enlarged, the security of our airspace and our state borders will be ensured, and [the need for] further operations at the Manas base, which provides air support to international antiterrorism coalition troops in Afghanistan, could be discussed,” Sultanov said.

Akipress notably was the only news-service today that reported Bordyuzha’s chiding rejection, while Kabar, the Kyrgyz state news agency, is probably the most misleading.

“And I, as someone who deals with the protection of borders, I think that time is over. Kyrgyzstan is a sovereign state which has fully formed [military] departments, including border guards.”

Of course, any of that could change given what’s in it for Russia further down the line. Meanwhile, the newly established ‘Movement for the Withdrawal of the American Air Force Base’ declared today that it would hold rallies in front of the US Embassy in Bishkek and the Ganci airbase, starting June 2. Mostly backed by the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan for now, the Movement’s objectives include: informing citizens of the negative consequences of hosting the base, opening detailed negotiations aimed at withdrawal, and proper compensation for the widow of the Kyrgyz-citizen, Alexander Ivanov, who was shot at a Ganci checkpoint. Recently having been offered a token US $50 thousand, widow Marina Ivanova strongly supports the anti-base movement, which she expresses here:

America shouts about their democratic rights which it imposes everywhere, but today we have seen that this has not been the case. In the US, for the moral damage of a spilled cup of coffee or quality goods, far higher payments are received than those of the moral damage that they have caused with such a vile act.

I don’t entirely understand her logic or the connection to this McDonald’s lawsuit, but the fundamental point is unavoidable: How is it possible that a Kyrgyz citizen can be shot in Kyrgyzstan by a foreign citizen without any legal recourse? It’s tough to say where the movement will go and what kind of support it will gather. AKIpress reader comments include “the true patriots of Kyrgyzstan and pickets will go not for the sake of money and vodka” and

Kyrgyz regionalism – threat or hype?

CXW over at neweurasia reports on signs of the potential crisis evolving out of Kyrgyzstan’s urban-rural, rich-poor and North-South divides, which have been politicized around the April standoff by both opposition and government media. Particularly with recent village clashes reported in the North and South pitting Kyrgyz against each other, analysts fear a further escalation as journalists, local and foreign, echo the idea. CXW comments:

Certainly, the cut-and-dry nature of a soley regional explanation is very appealing – just as ethnicity has often been used as an explanation for conflicts without looking at the underlying dynamics. Regional or ethnic differences may well play a role in facilitating conflict, particularly once it has begun, but often the ground for conflict has been prepared by local socio-economic factors such as high levels of unemployment and poverty and a shortage of resources.

Sheer regionalism obviously wasn’t enough to rally either side much in April. So it’s still slightly puzzling why the Bakiyev government cracked down so hard on the United Front protests if they were so obviously fizzling out on their own. Either it was because the government just knew they could get away with it (in the short term at least) or the snowballing reports of the imminent “next Tajik-styled civil war” had the opposition’s immediate potential far bigger than immediately visible.

French anthropologist Boris Petric explains why the North-South divide is particularly current now, in a valuable interview featured on the newsroom-blog of Camille Magnard and Mathilde Goanec. While the South had historically been tied to the Kokand khanate, the North allied itself in the late 19th century evade Chinese influence. When the borders were drawn up, the two parts were ‘artificially fused’ together, albeit with the North often getting more Soviet support. In the past few years, given the shift of power to Parliament deputies,

Being a governor or a ‘hakim’ doesn’t bring you as much power and resources as it once did… Why do they all want to be elected as deputies? To benefit from the parliamentary immunity, which is the ideal protection for their private economic activities. All these speeches about identity and tribalism are first meant to hide other realities such as the growing social inequalities in Kyrgyz society.

Promising start from United Front

IWPR runs a report on the United Front’s recently opened “School of Democracy.” Located in a Bishkek suburb, classes are taught on ‘human rights, the structure of the state, and legislation,’ with a reported 41 graduates already. Teachers include Felix Kulov himself, who’s been known to style himself in the past as the “Kyrgyz Mahatma Gandhi.”

Edil Baisalov, no fan of Kulov’s, comments approvingly:

“The opposition should not see the people who took part in its demonstrations as ‘extras’ who turn up whenever they’re called. It needs to work for the long term and develop and educate its supporters,” he said